INTRODUCTION

The world is going through a major crisis. Many have called it the biggest crisis after the 1929 depression. Several factors have come together to herald this crisis. First is environment degradation that has now reached a crisis point in the shape of global warming. Every one agrees that it is a very serious crisis. If carbon emissions continue at present levels, then the time will arrive when the tipping point will occur. That is, reversals will not be possible, that global warming itself will create more global warming. No one knows when such a point may be reached. Some say it has already occurred; some give it 10, 20, 50 or 100 years. The second factor is peak oil, peak gas and peaking of several mineral resources. Peaking means that after the particular point has been reached, production will not rise, but will fall. The reason is that there is only a finite quantity of these minerals and when half of it is taken out, the production starts falling. Often because, the cost of extracting from leftover, lower grade, remnant sources, is much higher in terms of energy and money.  The third is the economic crisis which began in the U.S.A. with the housing crisis in September 2007 and got full blown in the financial melt down of September 2008. Broadly, there is no disagreement on these facts. The differences are in the response to these crises.

The response of the government and the ruling class follow a particular trend. Primarily all these crises are not considered together. Each is treated separately. The financial crisis is tackled by a bail out kind of response. Global warming is treated by international agreements of reducing emissions. The response to Peak oil and peak gas is to opt for coal and nuclear energy, supplemented by alternatives like solar, wind, bio fuel etc.

Most people are aware of the different aspects of this crisis in a piecemeal manner. Thus for the economic crisis people want job security. People hope that these international agreements will manage to tackle global warming. While many oppose coal and nuclear based energy sources, they all hope that either alternatives like solar, wind etc. will happen or some new technological innovation will solve the entire problem.

This book addresses these issues in a different manner. One cannot rule out the possibility that this approach is wrong; that any of the above approaches may prove right; or that, the future being unpredictable, problems may be addressed in an altogether new manner.

All the same, based on study and concern for the future, this book outlines a different approach. First, in the opinion of the author, this is the most unprecedented crisis in human history. For the last 10,000 years or so, human society has experienced an increase in available energy through technological innovations and exploitation of man by man and exploitation of nature. This energy availability kept on increasing. And, in the last 200 years of industrial revolution it has increased enormously. The author believes that for the first time in human history we will face a decrease in available energy.

It is taken as a given that it is not possible to estimate when global warming will reach a tipping point. However, peak oil and the related economic crisis may actually reduce emission; it is possible that global warming will be arrested, even though effects of past warming will continue to create problems. The real solution then will be to learn to live with reduced levels of energy.

There are two kinds of challenges involved. Society cannot go back in time from its modern or present sensibilities. The challenge is how to have a modern society with reduced energy. A fossil fuel free society implies a drastic reduction of available energy for mankind. This makes the present social system of capitalism unviable. However this does not mean that humans are going back to the Stone Age!  More than half the energy used in the present system is irrational. The war industry, tobacco, narcotics, alcohol, much of the medical industry, a lot of the finance industry, bureaucracy etc are totally unnecessary. The alternative sources of energy would be sufficient for this reduced need of energy and still allow man to live comfortably with modern sensibilities and modified/improved modern technologies.

The second and more immediate problem is that the ruling classes are not going to give up voluntarily. People all over the world are struggling to save their livelihood, land, water and air from the sharks of the industry. The agents of change, therefore, will be organised people who are carrying out these struggles. People will not agree to a solution where they will continue to be poor, oppressed and exploited. So the final solution may lie in reduced and equitable access to energy for all. Finally, human society has encroached on nature much beyond its share at the cost of other living beings. Human society will have to restore these resources so that all forms of life can survive. Otherwise, human society itself will not survive.

This book is in three parts. The first, ‘The party is over’ describes the nature of the problem; the second, ‘Where do we want to go?’ describes a vision of the future; and the third is, ‘What then should we do?’ In it the strategy proposed is: 1. Halt the juggernaut of dying capitalism - coal based power plants, huge hydro-power plants, sponge iron plants, new mining leases etc. This can be done only through local people's organisations. 2. Build regional coalitions of people's organisation to plan and build a new society. To begin with, work towards assured alternative fossil fuel free livelihoods for every one.

In the appendices, a brief description of the Quaker method of dialogue and conflict resolution has been included. Also the script of ‘Village with the Watermills’ , which is an episode from Kurosawa’s film ‘Dreams’, has been included as an artistic and poetic perspective of a fossil fuel free society.

The objective of the book is primarily to provide educational material for activists and non-professionals. The book puts forward the views and action plans in a straightforward, simple and cogent form, without meandering into academic debates. While I checked with professional colleagues that no gross error has occurred in the data presented I have avoided giving references. The references provided at the end of the book are more in the nature of resources.

THE PARTY IS OVER

Human history has moved through several stages designated as primitive communism, slavery, feudalism and capitalism, each era successively having shorter periods. Of course different regions have had regional variations of this general scheme. The current stage, the industrial society/capitalism that began at the end of the 18^th century is also coming to end, as the title of this section indicates. Various contributing factors and events are dealt with, the principal among which is the beginning of the end of availability of concentrated form of energy like oil. The chapter on alternative energy discusses that technological solutions alone cannot solve the present crisis and proposes that the real solution lies in a socio-political change based on scaling down of energy use and equity.

WOLF AT THE DOOR the imminent crisis of capitalism

The Bell is Tolling

In the past, Leftists all over the world have predicted the demise of capitalism many times and have been proved wrong. Now that the demise is imminent - the wolf is actually at the door – the leftists are the last to believe it.

What makes the end of capitalism so imminent is that, there are several crises that have come simultaneously, interacting and reinforcing each other, that have made the present crisis of capitalism probably the last and final crisis of capitalism.

Some of these crises are well known, such as the Iraq war, global warming, the ongoing world wide recession... Others such as peak oil or peaking of world food production are less discussed in newspapers and popular mass media. In India, violence in Kashmir, insurgency in the North East and the Naxalite movement has posed a major threat to law and order. Every one of these is related to capitalism and each has reached its flash point.

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Ordinary people in every walk of life are deeply conscious that all is not well with the world. Majority of the people are in deep economic crisis, in their personal lives. In India a third of the population is living below poverty line and is forced to deal with food shortage, illnesses and distress in the course of day to day existence. Several thousands of farmers and urban poor have committed suicide. Systems are falling apart. Patients are attacking doctors; students are attacking teachers, and even going to the extent of killing each other! A crisis of this proportion does not emanate from one single cause. When several issues converge in a negative synergistic manner it causes collapse in a system.

Some of these causes are being examined below, followed by an attempt to establish their interconnectedness.

Global Warming

The main cause of global warming is burning of fossil fuels in astronomical quantities by the automobile industry and coal based thermal power plants. The consequent release of green house gases (GHG) is so huge that it far exceeds the earth’s capacity to absorb them.

This consumption of fossil fuel is not evenly distributed across the globe or among the people within a country. An average American puts into the atmosphere 18.5 tons of CO₂ emission per year as compared to a mere 1.8 tons by an average Indian. These averages hide the fact that most of the carbon output is contributed by the 20% rich of these countries and that the poor consume far less energy. Thus, even here, there are extreme inequalities in GHG output within and across countries.

This level of release of GHG is relatively a new phenomenon. For tens of thousands of years, humanity has existed, slowly changing the natural environment and ecology to meet its existential requirements. However, human activities of the present day that lead to increase in greenhouse gases are very specific. They do not pertain to the tribal or community based village life that humanity led in the past and which even today billions of poor people lead. GHG is the direct consequence of coal-based steam technology that saw the creation of the industrial revolution and mass production patterns. In the 20th century oil replaced as well as supplemented coal causing further pollution and global warming.

Why does capitalism need continuous increase in energy consumption? The logic of capitalism is production for sale and profit and not necessarily for requirements. It follows that, to increase profits, one should go on producing more and more create artificial needs and demands through public mind control. All of which necessarily requires consumption of energy.

Thus, global warming is a specific historical phenomenon.  It is with the ascendancy of industrial-based capitalism in the past one hundred and fifty years that global warming has occurred in a dramatic manner and increased to a point that threatens to alter the earth’s climate and ecology irreversibly.

In recent years, global warming has reached crisis levels because it is exceeding the biological carrying capacity of the earth. One and half earths are required to meet the needs and balance the demands of current human consumption levels. This is inevitably leading to the tipping point, meaning, that we have reached a point in time when global warming cannot be reversed. That is, we have entered a vicious cycle where global warming itself leads to further global warming and no one can do anything about it.

One cannot point with certainty as to when the tipping point will occur. Some even claim that it has already occurred and that humanity will see and feel its consequences in coming years. The assumption here is, it has not yet occurred and we have, say, a window of ten years left do something about it. The reason for this assumption is that changes in human society occur faster than changes in nature.

Many people believe that capitalism can reform. It is true that no big changes occur till all the existing alternatives are tried out. But today, the very material basis of capitalism, i.e., the concentrated form of energy - oil - is coming to an end or is becoming economically unviable. Although coal is still available, as will be seen later, it is the most undesirable source of energy and cannot easily displace oil.

Then, what about alternative forms of energy that don't release GHG to this extent? This will be dealt with, in greater detail, in section II of this book. Can all of us individually do something? Certainly yes! It will not be to save capitalism but to work towards building an alternative along with major social and political changes. It must not be forgotten that in order to solve the problem the essential need is to roll back energy consumption to at least pre 1975 levels; preferable even earlier to say 1930 levels. I have yet to come across a roadmap that can do it within the capitalist system. I firmly believe that this problem can only be solved by the demise of capitalism. If this does not happen, I have no doubt that we will reach the tipping point in the near future. So it is imperative that capitalism should collapse within 10 years or so, so that life on earth has a chance to survive. Therefore one should look at the tendencies that will lead to such an event. One such major tendency is Peak Oil.

Peak Oil

So what exactly is ‘Peak Oil’- which is likely to lead to the end of the industrial era? At the present rate of consumption, all available oil will be used up within this century. But peak oil is not about when we run out of oil, but rather, when the production of oil starts to decline, and this is much closer. It may be as close as 2010. Many observers believe that it has already occurred and we are witnessing the effects in the global crash of capitalism! On the other hand, many people believe that Peak Oil is a few years or decades away. This does not change the main argument that follows below as well as the fact that the consumption of fossil fuel is causing global warming and environment degradation in significant ways and therefore its use must be reduced as soon as possible.

How does one predict, ‘when Peak Oil will occur’? In 1956 a US scientist, M. King Hubbert correctly predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970. Since then, his methods of accurate predictions have been refined further. Essentially it is based on the fact that all locations of major deposits of oil are known, because, it is easier to locate large deposits. Therefore no new discoveries of large oil deposits are likely to occur. Secondly, since the consumption pattern is known it enables one to make fairly accurate predictions. The dates, however, may be advanced due to several factors. For example, consumption has increased dramatically in China and India. The oil-producing countries in West Asia are using more oil to spend their income from rising oil prices. Finally, the wars being waged primarily to gain control over oil resources - like the Iraq war - are not only consuming more oil but are also proving counterproductive.

Peak Oil crisis starts with rise in petroleum prices. For some time the figure of USD 100 per barrel of crude has been considered to be the turning point. On November 21, 2007 oil price hit USD 99. In 2008 it reached USD 147, ushering in an economic crisis; a recession in North America, Europe and Japan. Many believe that in the USA the economic crisis started with the housing crisis in August 2007. This economic crisis, as we know, is leading to a worldwide collapse of the system.

Transport and power are the backbone of an industrial society and a crisis in either or both can lead to a general breakdown. The rise in transport costs increases all commodity prices. Chemical fertilisers and pesticides are petroleum based products. A rise in their prices may reduce food production leading to increase in food prices. (In fact, some say the world food production has peaked in 2008 and that there will not be any further rise in world food production!) These processes lead to decrease in relative purchasing power, fall in demand, and recession. The Government of India is trying hard to maintain the subsidy on CNG, LPG and kerosene. Without the subsidy, the price of these commodities would be much higher, making them out of reach of many poor and middle class users. One way to overcome shortfall is to issue petroleum bonds. But this only distributes the risk to a wider range of gullible people; managing only to buy time for a short period. Very simply put, there is no solution to this crisis.

The Iraq War

As is well known, the war in Iraq is for control over oil. After Saudi Arabia, Iraq has the second largest reserve of oil. USA, with about 5% of the world’s population consumes 25% of the world’s production of oil. Its own reserve is only 3% of the world’s proven oil reserves. USA imports 65% of the oil it consumes, 13% of which comes from Saudi Arabia, which has 25% of the world’s proven reserves.

For USA, the aim of the war was to control the growing power of Saddam Hussein and to have access to Iraq’s oil on its own terms, as with Saudi Arabia and Mexico. While the war caused untold miseries and deaths to the Iraqi people, USA did not fully succeed in its war aims. It controlled Iraq’s growing power, but the oil production dropped during the war. In fact it is Iran which has benefited from the war. Its arch enemy, Saddam has been eliminated and in his place is the Shia community dominated government, which is on friendly terms with Iran. As other global events have unfolded, USA has in fact become weaker; going downhill steadily since July 2007. Today, USA is extremely vulnerable and is in the grips of a major recession.

Food Production Peaking

A basic essential for mankind is food. The world population has grown threefold in the last 100 years and so has the requirement for food. Food production is increased by increasing the area under cultivation and increasing productivity by utilising irrigation, fertilisers and pesticides.

The increase in land area for food has a finite limit and it has come now. In fact many non food crops are taking up agricultural land. Historically it was sugar, cotton and tobacco; today floriculture, bio-fuels and ethanol production is eating up existing crop areas as well as forests.

Similarly, increase in productivity also has its limits. After some time, typically after about 30 years or so, land degradation and reduced fertility occur. As a result, more and more chemical fertilisers and chemical pesticides are required to maintain productivity. Salinity of land increases. With oil peaking, costs of chemical inputs also start increasing. In the absence of social support structures and subsidies, farming becomes increasingly unviable. In India, this has led to tens of thousands of farmers committing suicide.

All these factors have led to decrease in rate of growth of production; now that production has reached its peak, it will start to decrease. In India, for the last 7 years production of wheat, dals and millets have fallen steadily. The per capita availability of food also has been decreasing. The poor having relatively less purchasing power are starving, dying or taking the extreme step of committing suicide. The world food production has in fact fallen this year (2009). Consequently a billion people are presently facing hunger and starvation.

Inter-imperialist Contradiction

With the depletion and scarcity of resources, capitalist powers are in sharp contradictions with one another over resource control. Russia with large natural resources of gas and petrol and military power is able to confront Europe and the USA. China with its huge economic power is able to purchase reserves of non renewable resources (that is gas and petrol) all over the world and also buy the companies that control them. The USA owes so much money to China that China is converting its dollar reserves into market shares of US companies. Some even say that the US economy is integrating into Chinese economy in the same way as the British economy integrated with the US economy after the Second World War.

In the 20th century, this kind of a situation led to the two world wars. Today a war of that nature is too dangerous because of nuclear weaponry. Hence wars are being waged by the USA directly over countries with resources that are not under its control. Still major confrontations cannot be ruled out. The Pugwash clock which symbolically indicates how close we are to a global disaster has been moved up by 2 minutes; that keeps us only 5 minutes away from such a disaster.

The South versus the North

These terms have come to imply the under developed and the developing countries (the South) and the developed countries (the North), because, as it happens, almost all the developed countries, except Australia, lie in the Northern hemisphere. Now in various international bodies, like the UN agencies, WTO, World Bank and IMF, the South is trying to act as a block to reduce the exploitation by the North. Among the most vocal are leaders from Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia. Some of the Arab countries like Syria, Lebanon and Palestine are also extremely vocal in their condemnation of the USA. Some of these countries are following extremely innovative policies within their countries. Some of which may help them prepare for the crisis of capitalism and reduce their vulnerability. Alongside, they are also trying to increase their share of holdings of the world’s non renewable resources, thus deepening the crisis further.

Anti-imperialist Movements

There are several kinds of these movements.

1. Organised political movements: These are mainly Maoist sort of movements. In Nepal they have won a major victory. In India the Maoist/Naxalites are the most significant anti state organised movement. Besides which, in several countries, communist movements exist and they organise trade unions and peasant organisations. Individual communists also work in several other organisations concerning civil liberties, women’s movements, tribal and dalit movements and so on.

2. Another organised movement is Al Qaeda sort of groups. It has a mass basis as a result of atrocities committed by the US army against the people of West Asia and the desecration of their religious sites. The movement has tremendous mass support and the ability to hit the US in its vulnerable positions. However, many people in the anti imperialist movement disagree with these organisations claiming they do more harm. Even within the Islamic nations, their support to Taliban kind of Islamic fundamentalism is opposed by many people. Historically, these organised groups had support from the US government, so also from the army and intelligence forces in Pakistan. They were a strong force against the Russians in Afghanistan.

3. There are large peoples’ movements against major projects of capitalism such as large dams, large coal based power plants, sponge iron plants, nuclear power plants, special economic zones (SEZs) and so on. They comprise of peasants whose land is at stake, environmentalists and naturalists who fear that these projects will damage ecosystems and citizens’ groups. They also have the sympathy, support and involvement of radical academia from among the science and humanities streams as also activists from the peoples’ science movements.

4. Finally, there are innumerable locally organised small groups all over the world addressing location specific or larger concerns within their limited sphere of operation. The oft quoted rationale has been ‘Think Globally Act Locally’. Politically, they range from anarchists of various hues, socialists, civil rights activists, women, black and dalit groups so also some religious groups. While their impact on capitalism and the deepening crisis may not be very significant, their role in contributing towards a possible future vision is very critical.

Why does no one Appear to be bothered?

No ruling class in history ever appeared to be aware of their imminent fall. They are akin to drunken drivers down a slope dimly aware that there is danger luring ahead but nevertheless confident that they will carry through this time! However there are variations, particularly, in 'market' circles and among professionals. Markets in the USA have been jittery over the last two years, ever since the housing bubble burst and more so since the financial melt down of September 2008. Professionals in their journals have been giving warnings. But on the whole, the ruling class comes across as confident. The Indian crisis has not yet reached such a serious level, so the Indian ruling classes and the state appear very confident.

What about the left and leaders of the peoples’ movements? The parliamentary left, particularly CPI-M, being in power, is totally committed to capitalism. Their veteran leader, Jyoti Basu, even said on January 5, 2008 that in the near future there is no alternative to capitalism and that socialism is not possible in the near future.

On the other hand, peoples’ leaders have been so busy assisting their people in their struggles for sheer survival against oppression and exploitation by the ruling classes and the State that they have little breathing space to take stock. Then, there are many who are aware of the deepening crisis of capitalism, but feel helpless. The sincere among them continue to work with peoples’ struggles in various capacities. And finally, there could possibly be a deeper reason. Eric Fromm called it 'Fear of Freedom'. When one has been a slave so long, it is difficult to imagine and plan for a day when you will be free to plan your own life. The phenomenon is evident in retired people; on retirement, in spite of adequate means of survival, they are unable to live on their own. Some get depressed; a few go to the extent of ending their own life.

But this need not be so. There have been dreamers in the past and revolutions too have occurred in the past. After all, we have nothing to lose but our shackles!

Once we are convinced about the imminence of the crisis; its knowledge should enable us to collectively evolve a viable, fossil fuel independent, low energy usage future with equity among human beings and harmony with nature as the norm.

Such a vision should also help in evolving a practical roadmap for an ordered transition. This ordered transition may necessitate violent confrontations with the ruling classes. The programme could provide guidance to peoples’ movements, organisations, trade unions, NGOs, volunteer groups and even to individuals. Such a programme will help dispel the helplessness and defeatism; the sense of fighting a losing battle. It will energise people to work towards a sustainable future, if not for ourselves, at least for the future generations. After all we owe them a legacy of responsible behaviour towards the planet.

See also

http://t-vijayendra.blogspot.com/2011/04/references-and-resources.html

What about Alternative Forms of Energy?

Today, many are ready to accept, devoid much understanding, that the era of coal, petrol and gas is coming to an end. Coal, though available in plenty in China, India and many other parts of the world, is becoming unacceptable because of greater CO₂ emissions and global warming. On the other hand, oil and gas are peaking, that is, their production has reached its maximum (peaked) and henceforth will keep on falling.  The thought, however, that always follows is: what about alternatives? What about nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, bio-fuel and so on? There is a genuine lack of knowledge and understanding regarding the nature of alternative sources of energy; of what is possible and what is not. An attempt to deal with this aspect of the question reveals that there are no real alternatives to the present level of energy consumption and that the only viable alternative is to reduce energy consumptions. Implied within this argument is that the present power structure will crumble; that the days of capitalism and industrial society are over.

 

The above argument may not necessitate going back to the Stone Age. Alternative sources of energy would be sufficient to meet reduced energy needs; will still allow for a life of comfort given our evolved sensibilities and improved low energy technologies. Most people today find it difficult to accept this argument because of rationales based on experiential memory.

The first being, many people believe the powerful will always find a way to remain in power; for example, during the Emergency in India - 1977, people felt that the then Prime Minster Ms. Indira Gandhi would continue to stay in power.

The history of the last 10,000 years or so shows that mankind has increased its access to power through systematic ‘exploitation’ of nature through science, technology, social power, exploitation of man by man etc. Hence it is difficult to imagine or believe that the availability of energy at present levels will decrease.

 

More importantly, people are not ready to accept a drastic change in their lives. It is akin to accepting a personal tragedy; sudden loss of job; death of a child; self admission of compulsive addictions etc. Similarly, having got used to a certain life style or as George Bush said, ‘we are addicted to oil.’ it is difficult to accept that present lifestyles will have to change; that the era of industrialisation is over; and that one will have to live at a much lower level of energy utilisation. Psychologists use the term DABDA - Disbelief and Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and finally Acceptance to describe the process of accepting the unacceptable. Drawing an analogy - today the world is mainly going through “denial”. Some are angry because of loss of job, scaling down from set life styles etc. Those who are secure today are going through a process of “bargaining”. It is they who are asking the question, but what about alternative sources of energy?

Accepting change is relative to previous experiences. People who have never been inside an airplane are ready to accept a world without aviation. People who have never owned a car are happy to have bicycles and public transport. Thousands of poor or rural dwellers have only seen such conveniences from a distance.  When told about it, they are more likely to say: ‘Is that so, well, we can survive!’

Energy Generation

To begin with, the production or generation of any form of energy resource from fossil fuel deposits or from other sources requires an initial expenditure of the same - also known as energy investment. To produce, procure or extract any energy resource whether it is pumping oil out of the ground or building and operating a wind turbine it requires expending some amount of energy. Simplistically communicated it means, energy is required to produce, transport, store and use energy. If the energy return is less than the energy used to produce it, then, it is generally not worth the bother! This significant element - hardly ever considered in popular debate - in the generation of energy goes by the acronym EROI – Energy Returned on Investment.

Comparing different Energy Processes

Given in the table are EROI values for various energy production processes. The break even for EROI being 1.0, any figure less than 1.0, infers a net "loss". The value 0.8, for example would mean a net energy loss of 20%. That is, it would take 20% more to acquire, generate or produce a given quantum, than the energy available for use. Obviously not a good deal!  In practice, an EROI of 1.4 is generally considered minimum acceptable as there are other losses in using that energy. This is so because all real-life processes are irreversible.

The EROI value in the 1940's for oil and gas stands at greater than 100 for discoveries. Meaning, at the wellhead i.e., where the oil/gas springs out of the ground, the energy returned is more than 100 times the energy utilized for its extraction...a very good deal!

Table of comparative EROI values. *

PROCESS	EROI
Nonrenewable Resources
Oil and gas (domestic well head)
1940’s	Discoveries> 100.0
1970’s	Production23.0 Discoveries8.0
2000	Production 11.0
Coal (mine mouth)
1950’s	80.0
1970’s 2000	30.0 11.0
Oil shale	0.7 to 13.3
Coal liquefaction	0.5 to 8.2
Geopressured gas	1.0 to 5.0
Renewable Resources
Ethanol (sugarcane)	0.8 to 1.7
Ethanol (corn)	1.3
Ethanol (corn residues)	0.7 to 1.8
Methanol (wood)	2.6
Solar: Flat- plate collector	1.9
Solar: Concentrating collector	1.6

Electricity Production
Coal: USA Average	9.0
Hydropower	11.2
Nuclear (light–water reactor)	4.0
Solar
Power satellite	2.0
Power tower	4.2
Photovoltaic	1.7 to 10.0
Geothermal:Liquid dominated	4.0
Geothermal:Hot dry rock	1.9 to 13.0

*Source: Energy and the U.S. Economy: A Biophysical Perspective

Cutler J. Cleveland; Robert Costanza; Charles A. S. Hall; Robert Kaufmann

Science, New Series, Vol. 225, No. 4665 (Aug. 31, 1984), 890-897.

Figures for the year 2000 are from the internet.

On examining the table, a few things become clear. For both coal and oil the EROI decreases as resources deplete. Translated into economics this means a drop in viability and production. Being a nonrenewable resource, a stage is bound to come when it is no longer economical to extract or mine the two. In case of oil, we are very near it. The stage is also known as ‘Peak Oil’.  Liquid Gas may take another decade or so to peak. Coal is becoming unacceptable even before peaking occurs because it is the dirtiest of all fuels -causing pollution. It contributes to global warming more than oil or gas. Thus, producing electricity from coal instead of from natural gas causes nearly 70% more carbon dioxide emissions; apart from the consequent pollution and cleansing costs. However, being 10 to 30 times more efficient, no other form of energy is anywhere near as efficient or profitable as coal and oil. Hence, none can replace coal and oil to the present level of consumption.

Generating electricity will reduce EROI further for coal and gas because energy is required to run the power plant. Except hydro electric power, in all other cases the EROI is not very good and therefore their use will be limited.

 

Other problems with Alternatives

Some other problems with alternatives to oil and gas are:

•   That they are generally only of use in the production of heat and electricity and not the multitude of uses that oil in particular is put to from transport to plastics. Of course wind and flowing water has been used for millennia for transport; for pumping; for grinding; for cooling and ice-making; in agriculture as energy. Solar heat has been used for all kinds of drying.

•   Each is accompanied by its own form of pollution

•   Even with increasing their harnessing to maximum potential, it would be hard to meet present day requirements.

Fuel Source and Pollution Problems

Pollution problems of different fuel sources may be summarised as follows:

Oil: global warming, air pollution by vehicles, acid rain, oil spills, oil rig accidents.

Natural gas: global warming, pipe leakage, methane explosions.

Coal: global warming, environment degradation due to opencast mining, land subsidence due to deep mining, spoil heaps, groundwater pollution, acid rain.

Nuclear power: global warming (despite what they say), radioactivity (routine release, risk of accident, waste disposal), misuse of fissile material by terrorists, spread of nuclear weapons.

Bio-fuels: effect on landscape and biodiversity, groundwater pollution due to fertilisers, use of scarce water resources, competition with food production.

Hydroelectric: displacement of populations, effect on rivers and groundwater, dams (visual intrusion and risk of accident), seismic effects, effects on agriculture downstream.

Wind power: noise, visual intrusion in sensitive landscapes, bird strikes, TV interference.

Solar energy: sequestration of large land areas, use of toxic materials in manufacture of PV cells, visual intrusion in both rural and urban environments.

A closer look at some of the alternatives

Nuclear Power

Of all the alternatives; inspite of being advertised most, the nuclear option is not acceptable at all! The Indian government is hell bent on getting nuclear energy in spite of opposition from all sides of the debate. Here, I would like to introduce a personal experience.

In the nineteen fifties I was in school. At that time, the U.S. government launched the programme, Atoms for Peace. It used Einstein’s famous equation between mass and energy, which implied, one could get enormous energy from splitting the atom as demonstrated by the atomic bomb. It also said that energy would be so cheap that it will not be worthwhile billing it. We were all impressed. And I even decided to work for it!

Many years later (1967-68) I actually worked at the Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Calcutta. Here I came across the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Established in 1945 by scientists who felt guilty about having helped to produce the atom bomb, it aimed at the scientific community readership to inform them about the misuse of science. The contributors to the bulletin were several important physicists and other scientists, many of them Nobel Laureates including Einstein. In 1967, I was a fresh graduate in Electronics Engineering and was naturally impressed by these ‘Gurus of my Gurus’. The Bulletin made it amply clear that the nuclear energy programme was essentially a civilian front for the weapon programme and that on its own it is not at all a viable energy programme. So I asked myself, what am I doing here? Soon, I left the Institute and vowed I would never allow my knowledge of science and technology to be used against mankind and nature.

Today no one speaks of ‘Atoms for Peace’ as it has been demonstrated to be a total lie. There have been campaigns against nuclear arms and energy for decades, the most famous being, Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) in England. There is also a chapter of CND in India. They have published enormous literature on the subject and established beyond doubt that:

• In spite all the hype about nuclear energy, the total contribution to electricity generation from nuclear energy to the world is only 15 % and to any country’s electricity supply it has never exceeded 20% except in France (78%), Belgium (54%), South Korea (39), Switzerland (37%) and Japan (30%). Not even in the U SA where the first nuclear chain reaction was performed! USA went on to make the first atomic bomb and used it on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan.

·   Nuclear power stations have a life of 40 years or so, after which, they have to be decommissioned. The nuclear waste and the old plant have to be then protected from causing radiation damage for the next thousands of years. The myth of electricity produced from nuclear power being cheap holds true to the extent of operating costs only. Even then, the EROI is only 4 as compared to oil, coal and hydropower, which are in the range of 10. When the cost of research, development, construction, decommissioning, storage and disposal of waste are included, nuclear turns out to be the most expensive conventional energy source.

• Many countries that have a nuclear energy programme also have a weapon programme including India and Pakistan. Some have hidden programmes like Israel and Iran. Countries that do not have a weapon programme but have nuclear energy programmes are decommissioning their plants and are not building new ones. Countries that have a good stockpile of weapons, like the USA have not commissioned a new plant for decades. Accidents at Three Miles Island and Chernobyl have also acted as a deterrent.

• France has a weapon programme and a real energy programme, which contributes some 78% to its electricity requirements. The reason is, France has no coal and oil and it is forced to build nuclear power stations with huge subsidies culled from taxpayers’ money. Belgium, South Korea, Switzerland and Japan have a similar problem. However, these countries are rich, have trade surpluses and can afford it!

• In all other cases, nuclear power stations have only if ever, been built with huge subsidies. British nuclear power industry has cost tens of billions of pounds over the last 50 years. Decommissioning old nuclear power stations is costing over £70 billion and rising.

• What it implies is; in all the countries that have weapon programme - open, hidden or potential - nuclear power stations have been built as a civilian front for the weapon programme. Nuclear weapons and nuclear power share a common technological basis. Skilled workers and continuing research are beneficial for both industries. The process of enriching uranium to make it into fuel for nuclear power stations can be a step towards further enriching it to make nuclear weapons. Used fuel (spent nuclear fuel) from nuclear power stations can be separated out to recover any usable elements such as uranium and plutonium through a method called reprocessing. Plutonium is a by-product of the nuclear fuel cycle and can also be used to make nuclear weapons.

• India’s nuclear programme, including the deal with the US is problematic. It seems that it will give India the energy at enormous costs and may not give the weapons. Unlike Japan, India cannot afford it. The programme essentially bails out the nuclear power plant industry in the US, France, Russia, their Indian collaborators like the BHEL, and helps the building industry. Even then, its prospect of adding to India’s power generation is negligible because the plants have a gestation of 15 years and they end up only replacing old plants which will then be ready for decommissioning!

 

 

Biofuels

Bio-fuel is made by converting biomass into a fuel. It is used for running machinery and motor vehicles; and is the only alternative fuel that can almost directly replace oil and gas. The diesel engine after all, was originally designed to run on a variety of fuels and it can be operated using bio-fuels with little or no adjustment.

Bio-diesel is a chemically altered vegetable oil while ethanol - another common fuel - is a fuel-grade form of alcohol produced by grain fermentation and as a profitable byproduct of the sugar industry. However, bio-fuels come with their own set of deterrents; especially where farming is carried out specifically for the purpose.

• Bio-fuels are not cheap. The EROI is less than 2 and can even be less than 1 in which case it is not even worth producing. Growing maize [used to create ethanol in the USA] appears to consume 30% more energy than the end product; leaving eroded soils and polluted waters behind.

• With limited land available it may be prudent to use it for farming or forestry. The grain required to fill the petrol tank of a Range Rover with ethanol is sufficient to feed one person for a year. Assuming the petrol tank is refilled every two weeks, the amount of grain required could keep a few families well fed for a year.

• The irresponsible growing of bio-crops can do tremendous harm. The rise in the production of palm oil for bio-diesel could turn out to be catastrophic; threatening to put more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than it could save. This is because countries like Malaysia are cutting down vast tracts of rainforests to grow the crop; not only endangering the flora and fauna, but also releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide trapped within trees.

In light of the above, bio-diesel should not be looked upon as a replacement for oil, but at most, as a temporary measure for a tide over to a more sustainable future. Ultimately we need to travel far less than we presently do if we are to exorcise the twin demons of climate change and peak oil.

Hydroelectricity

Flowing water has been used to generate electricity since the 1880s and has been used to create mechanical power for centuries before that. It is the most advanced, efficient and important renewable source at the moment contributing to about 19% of the world's electricity supply. It has a potential of nearly five times that figure - including areas in Asia and Africa. Although expensive to construct, it is very cheap to maintain, store and release quickly on demand - a quality few other energy sources have. The largest power station today is the Itaipu plant between Brazil and Paraguay, with a capacity of 12 GW- ten times that of a coal or nuclear station.

It is however not all-good news.

• The damming of rivers can create many serious environmental problems and destroy valuable farmland, which is often found in valleys. Existing inhabitants are often forced to move and the collapse of a dam or even release of water during heavy monsoon can prove catastrophic for those living downstream.

• Dams too have a finite life; their performance begins to downslide in about 30 years caused by silting of the reservoir. This raises the reservoir bed, increases its area and inundates more fertile land. Rise in the bed level also reduces its capacity to hold water. Water may then have to be released during the monsoons, causing heavy floods downstream. Hence, instead of controlling floods, it may become the cause of more floods! Indian scientists in the 1950s cautioned about this possibility when the first dams under Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) were proposed.

• Today, many studies are available which prove that the harm done by dams far exceed its benefits. The actual performances of most dams are far below their designed capacities.

• Thus, while India is supposed to have huge potential for hydro electricity, there is widespread opposition to it. The Narmada Bachao Andolan (Save Narmada Movement) is one such resistance. While a large number of dams are proposed in the North East and in Uttarakhand, in the face of opposition and the economic crisis, it is unlikely any of these dams will ever be built.

Wind Power

Wind power has seen the largest growth as an energy source in recent years. There are many advantages to wind power. Most countries have large areas where wind blows fairly reliably and stronger winds can usually be harnessed by simply building higher. They do not take up much space as the land beneath the turbines can be used for farming or storage. The fuel for the turbine is free and the environmental ill effects limited when placed in areas of low bird movement.

With a typical modern wind turbine, electricity would begin to be generated at a starting wind speed of maybe 3.5 m/s and the power output would increase with wind speed until it reaches a maximum of say 225 kW at 13 m/s. Any further increase in the wind speeds beyond that would not produce any greater output. Finally, there would be a maximum speed, where after, the turbine would need to be protected to stop it from spinning at dangerously high speeds. This might be at about 25 m/s., these high speeds are rarely reached.

However, with maximum EROI of only 2, wind power is neither cheap nor efficient. Also space required for generating power from wind is very high. It has limited use in specific areas and its contribution to the total energy resource will be less than 10%. In India while the installed capacity of wind power has already exceeded nuclear power, the actual output appears to be much below design capacity.

Solar Energy

Solar energy is the acquisition of heat or power directly from the rays of the Sun, unlike biomass and ground source heating which use the Sun indirectly. (In the long term, this indirect harvesting of the Sun is the most sustainable form). The amount of sunlight falling on any area of ground obviously depends on its location and the time of year.  As the Sun does not shine at all at night in India and is much weaker in the winter when demand is higher, massive batteries would be needed for storage. Again space required for solar power generation is very high. Nevertheless, solar can contribute significantly to reducing energy needs and should not be overlooked.

There are two ways of using solar energy: solar heating and photovoltaic (PV).

Solar Heating

The simplest and practical use of solar power is the solar box cooker. With cooking gas supply decreasing there will be tremendous pressure on the already delicate state of firewood supply. Solar cookers can supply at least half the energy required for cooking. Another similar application is solar driers. They can be used for drying a large variety of household necessities. Larger ones can be used for drying wood.

Solar water heaters are another popular use of solar heating. This usually involves piping water through insulated boxes, which have glass covers and the insides painted black. These act like 'mini-greenhouses'; heating water as it is pumped through the box (known as a 'collector'). This water is then used either directly or transfers its heat to the domestic supply. The heat generated is not likely to do away with the need to use other fuels to heat water, especially as there would be no solar input during the night and part of the daytime. Nevertheless, it could be used to pre-heat domestic water to a temperature of 35ºC or so, thereby reducing overall domestic fuel bills.

On a larger scale, it is possible to use this principle to create a solar power station. This would involve positioning hundreds of mirrors to reflect their radiation onto a boiler at the top of a tower. The liquid in here is heated enough to generate steam and turn turbines to generate electricity. Another option is to create a tall hollow tower in the centre of a vast greenhouse. As the sun warms the air, it rises and turns turbines.

These large-scale power stations are still a rarity as they suffer from the same problems of no Sun at the night and little sun in the winter. However, in sunnier climates like India, Australia or California, they are likely to be more useful.

Photovoltaic (PV)

Photovoltaic known to everybody from solar cells in calculators turns the light of the Sun directly into electricity rather than via heat. However, a calculator uses very little power. Generating enough electricity to make a significant contribution towards illuminating a house or office is another matter altogether.

Initial solar cells were only 4.5% efficient. They grew to about 15% in the 1960s and are about 20% efficient now. A square meter on a sunny day would keep a 100-watt light bulb going. At the moment, PV electricity is one of the most expensive of the renewables. Research on PV is long drawn; solar cells require pure Silicon which is expensive to produce. Land requirement for the power plants is large. No doubt it will become cheaper as production increases and new cells are developed. It remains to be seen how significant the contribution of this energy source will be.

On the whole, passive use of solar energy (solar cookers, driers and solar water heaters) will certainly grow, whereas generation of electricity will be limited. One reason being, the former is a low technology product and can be manufactured locally. EROI for solar power generation is also below 2 and demands superior technology.

Other Sources

It is not possible to discus all the sources of alternatives. In general one can say three things about them.

1. There may be some which have real potential. For them to become viable takes about two decades. There are none such that are ready or in the pipe line.
2. Some fall more into the science fiction category. That is, a competent group of scientists can show that such sources are unviable.
3. Some are pure bluffs or lies. These are used by ‘fly by night operators’ to fool the public with the connivance of  government officials to raise money, and then walk away with the money by declaring that it was not a viable project.

The case of hydrogen fuel cells illustrates this very well. A fuel cell combines hydrogen and oxygen and produces electricity and water. For the last few decades this emission-free hydrogen fuel cell was held to be the solution. And yet today the verdict is ‘Neither government policy nor business investment should be based on the belief that hydrogen cars will have meaningful commercial success in the near or medium-term.’ And, ‘fuel cells provide a multi-decade lesson in high-tech humility’. The problem that never got solved was to evolve a pollution free source for hydrogen itself. Most hydrogen today is obtained from fossil fuels. And yet, there are many companies in the world that are surviving on government subsidies through false promises.

We began by saying that, ‘we are used to a certain life style’ or as George Bush said, ‘we are addicted to oil’. It is difficult to accept that all this will change; that the era of industrialisation is over, and that, we will have to live at a much lower level of energy.’ However, if  we remove the irrational use of energy then it is entirely possible to continue to have modern sensibilities and even ‘comforts’ with alternative forms of energy along with a judicious mix of fossil fuels in small quantities.

 

The main purpose of this essay is to prepare a basis to accept the inevitability of the change. Once we accept this; it may be possible to plan a transition that will be smooth and may even be exhilarating - as we have seen in Cuba.

For a smoother transition, one basic rule is that the transition be incremental. As a general policy we can

1. Say ‘No’ to every new coal, gas and nuclear energy project.
2. Reduce energy consumption through energy auditing.
3. Reduce waste due to ‘Transmission and Distribution’ losses.
4. Develop the alternatives – solar, wind, wood gassifiers, micro hydel etc. to their full capacity. Concentrate on low power local projects.
5. Reduce consumption of petroleum by using more public transport and reducing personal automobile transport vehicles.
6. Reduce use of fossil fuel (LPG) in cooking by using solar cookers, bio gas and even wood fuel.
7. Change over to organic farming to reduce use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.
8. On the whole move towards using much less net energy in a more equitable fashion.

Given the present social system, the rich and powerful have a greater resistance to change and they will continue to carry on the irrational social, political and economic system. The reality however is that, technological fixes alone do not solve problems. The solution will have to be holistic and will be carried out by the victims of the present system, that is, the working people. Only the organised working people with a rational plan can bring about such a transition. For this, peoples’ struggles against inequity and injustice will have to continue and at the same time an implementable plan for a rational fossil fuel free society will have to be executed. The incremental changes mentioned previously can only be carried out in the context of such struggles and plans.

See also

http://t-vijayendra.blogspot.com/2011/04/references-and-resources.html