Monday, 11 February 2013

ON ENGINEERS



ON ENGINEERS
ABSTRACT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This article is addressed to young engineers who are troubled by their profession and are seeking alternatives. The article attempts at an historical understanding of the profession and its destructive character. Then it offers a critique and explores positive alternatives for the profession. It ends with giving a few examples from Indian engineers today who are in fact practising alternatives.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Engineers don't win Nobel prizes.
Shreekumar

I belong to the most rapacious predator that stalked the Earth -humans, and to a net destructive discipline-engineering, that has to take more than a fair share of the responsibility for bringing the Earth and human society to a tipping point.
Sagar Dhara

Both Shreekumar and Sagar Dhara are some of the most politically conscious thinking engineers that I have known. They have impressive records but I won't embarrass them by talking about it.

Between these two statements there is a range of meanings and nuances which cover a description and critique of engineers and engineering as a profession. I propose to start with these statements and arrive at a workable definition and critique.

The first thing to note is that both the statements carry negative connotations about engineers.

Engineers are not scientists

Shreekumar is saying that engineers are not good scientists. In fact there has been only one engineer who did win the Nobel Prize. It was the Soviet engineer/scientist Peter Kapitsa (1894 -1984). But he won it as a physicist. He had worked with Ernest Rutherford in the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge. In 1978, Kapitsa won the Nobel Prize in Physics for the work in low temperature physics that he did about 1937.
However for a real engineer who was a scientist the pride of place must to go to J. W. Gibbs (1839 – 1903), one of the greatest scientists of the 19th century. In 1863, Gibbs was awarded the first Ph. D. in engineering in the USA from the Sheffield Scientific School at Yale for a thesis entitled On the Form of the Teeth of Wheels in Spur Gearing. But there was no Nobel Prize in his days. However, in 1901, Gibbs was awarded the highest possible honour granted by the international scientific community of his day, granted to only one scientist each year: the Copley Medal of the Royal Society of London, for his greatest contribution of being "the first to apply the second law of thermodynamics to the exhaustive discussion of the relation between chemical, electrical, and thermal energy and capacity for external work."
There are many engineers who in fact are good scientists (including Shreekumar himself) but they are on the whole exceptions and what Shreekumar says is by and large true. Engineers are mostly interested in immediate results and rarely bother about the science of it. If they had bothered about it, as Shreekumar shows in his writings on 'Thermodynamics and Sustainability', they would have been aware of the larger costs, particularly cost to the environment. They would also have thought about the inadvisability of many of their 'bright' ideas. In fact the key words for engineers are 'being smart' and the 'thrill' of it!
But what is the difference between a scientist and an engineer? A working definition can be that engineering is applied science. Science is 'uninterested' enquiry, knowledge for knowledge's sake. When did the engineer appear? When did science get together with technology? There have always been exceptional individuals who combined pure enquiry with practical application-like Leonardo Da Vinci. There is also a case that many 'great' people claimed credit for work done by the artisans. In the play 'Galileo' by Bertolt Brecht it is shown that while Galileo was showing off his telescope to the aristocracy, it was sold as a toy in the streets of Rome!

But on the whole engineers are a relatively new breed. They are products of capitalism and democracy. How Come?

Historically science was developed by people of leisure-aristocracy and priests. Technology was developed by artisans on the basis of their long and continuous association with tools and equipment. Capitalism brought a demand for educated working class and democracy made science education accessible to all citizens. Technical institutes and later technological universities came into being. Children of the artisans and working class came to know the laws of science - particularly mechanics and hydraulics. Later chemistry and electricity got introduced. Thus the modern engineer was born. They were in great demand by the industry and their education and careers were guided by the demands of the industry.

Now the industry is guided by the return on investment. New technology often gave greater productivity. Very often workers' protest against horrible conditions, compensation paid to the injured or dead workers gave impetus to new technology. Engineers were also asked to design machines and work places to get greater productivity from the workers. Thus the science and technology of ergonomics was born. In engineering design it is very often asked, 'if we gain by this improvement, where do we lose?' Trade-offs is a common discussion topic, but never do engineers discuss the increased load on the environment. Dumping your losses on the environment is the unwritten law. Environment is considered free and it is assumed that it is 'an infinite source and an infinite sink'.

Engineers are tools of capitalism to exploit nature and human beings

Dhara's description says a lot about humans as specie and their increased role as predators due to engineers in the last two hundred years. Human species has for a long time changed its environment to suit itself more than any other species. This however reached a very high level with capitalism and access to 'cheap' fossil fuel. They have destroyed vast stretches of forests, grassland and wetland and brought these areas under cultivation. This has had an effect on destroying eco systems and endangering, and in some cases even leading to extinction, a large number of species within a very short period of time. This agriculture also increased the human population seven folds. Other developments in consumerism led per capita consumption to several times higher and have led to resource constraints. It has increased greenhouse gases leading to global warming which can endanger all life on earth. The era of 'infinite source and infinite sink' is over.

The Manhattan Project

The greatest travesty of science and engineering is of course the Manhattan Project - the secret project to make the atom bomb in the 1940s by the United States. Here to their eternal shame the greatest minds of science and engineers got together to make the worst weapon in the world - the atomic bomb. What is even more horrifying is that the top leaders of the project agreed to test it on innocent civilians of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan when it was not even needed to win the war!

The sad fact is that even after this shameful event engineers continued to develop atom and hydrogen bombs and design and test missiles which can drop these bombs thousands of miles away, kill and maim hundreds of thousands of people within minutes! They also developed a large variety of weapons of mass destruction which go under the innocuous name 'Chemical and Biological Warfare'.

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

The saving grace of the Manhattan project is the Pugwash Conference and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. In essence it was an apology to the world by many important scientists (and hopefully engineers) about their involvement in the project. There is the Pugwash clock which tells us how many minutes we are away from a global mutual destruction. Usually it is around 5-6 minutes but it moves up when a political crisis at a world scale develops.

The Bulletin is a monthly journal and recently it has become an online journal and is no longer printed. The journal's editorial board invariably has a few Nobel Laureates and Einstein was one of its founder editors. The journal carries articles about destructive science and engineering projects in every field. For example it even carried an article on how unscientific city's central sewage systems are! But the tragedy is that hardly any engineer knows even the existence of this journal let alone be inspired by it.

A History of Protest

The devastation caused by capitalism evoked protests not only from the victims - 'the exploited and oppressed' classes, but also from enlightened people from all sections of society, including engineers and scientists. Predictably it first came from those fields that are closest to life. From naturalists, many of whom had background in biological sciences and forestry, from agriculture scientists and from town planners! In the Indian context Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS) has been leading in crying 'fowl' of many destructive projects. Albert Howard, author of 'An Agricultural Testament' and father of modern organic farming, worked in India during the 20s and 30s, was a botanist and gave a powerful critique of chemical agriculture. Patrick Geddes who worked in India during 1915-1919, carried out some 60 town planning exercises and gave a critique of engineer led town planning exercise which ignored the human beings living in the towns.
As we have seen above, after the Second World War and the atomic bomb many scientists and engineers started questioning their profession. Einstein maintained that a scientist is responsible for his actions and cannot hide behind government policies. So he publicly apologised for his role in the bomb and started the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Today there is a flood of engineers and scientists who are opposed to big hydraulic dams, coal based power plants, nuclear power plants, polluting chemical plants and host of other destructive aspects of capitalism. However, the mainstream media is controlled by the capitalists and these scientists and engineers do not get the exposure to the general public. They get known mainly by their work with the grassroots movements of protests, through alternative journals and publications and now through the internet. Increasingly, grassroots movements of protests by farmers and other poor people whose livelihoods are endangered by these projects are seeking and getting support by many environmentalists, engineers and scientists.

What can an engineer do today?

The essay is addressed to young engineers who are troubled by their profession and are seeking alternatives. What is an alternative? Many people think that solar, mini hydro power projects or pedal power and other appropriate technology projects are the alternatives. Yes, they certainly can be components of an alternative system, but it is the present system itself that is at fault and plugging with a few softer alternatives is not enough. One has to work towards changing the whole system.

However to do so one has to change the mind-set which sees nature as meant for 'conquering' and for 'exploitation'. This has resulted in overexploitation of nature and human being so much that the system has become unsustainable and is on the verge of collapse. The focus of an alternative system would be restoring the ecosystem, reduce our consumption and work towards equality. How does one go about it?

To begin with, we must begin with ourselves. Our life style and our education is already a big load on the environment and on poor people. But our awareness about this is very superficial. It is not a driving force for our life choices and actions. We have to begin by learning about ourselves and about our society.

Some people think that we can build our capacities for change by further studying -s ay by getting a degree in sustainable development. While learning is always welcome, in fact it is a lifelong process; another stint at a university may not be the best course. It continues to increase our load on the environment and on poor. It is more so if we go abroad where typical costs are Rs. 20 Lakhs. It does not matter whether we get a scholarship, our parent pay for it or we take a loan. We will continue to lead an elite existence. Then after finishing the course we will have to take up a job to pay back the loan that will put us back in the same life style and similar peer group. We can end up spending 5 years in this.

Nor does it teach the lessons we want to learn. Most prestigious universities teach us to become professional allies of the ruling class and they instil a value system in our thinking. If we want to do anything meaningful for the people we have to go through a long unlearning process and often it is not complete unlearning. Vestiges of ruling class attitudes and ideology remain. So why all this Kolavari di?
For real learning we have to go to the people directly. If you do want to read a book, the best I can recommend is 'My Universities' by Maxim Gorky in which he describes his learning through wandering all over Russia. Secondly if you do want to go through a formal learning course, then may be an online distance education course would serve the purpose. It will give you some book learning at a fairly low cost and will still give enough time to learn directly from people.

How do we learn from people? It is not that we have not come across poor people in our lives. But we are governed by our background and our prejudices and we are not able to learn much. For this we have to go to people's movement, preferably through or with a mentor who will help us.

There are a variety of people's movements going on. There are regional and ethnic movements like those in Kashmir, North East India, and there are poor people's and Tribals' movements in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and West Bengal that have significant Maoist involvement. There are trade union movements both in the organised sectors and newer sectors like NREGA workers' trade unions. One can get mentors in all these fields and there is a lot to learn there - both about oneself and about how the Indian society workers. You will also come across other issues like gender and caste in these struggles. Then there are struggles against specific anti people large projects-like large dams, coal based and nuclear power plants, chemical plants, SEZs and so on. These combine poor people’s struggle and environmental issues. There are movements about wild life conservation and preventing cruelty to animals. These are mainly led by NGOs but one can learn a lot there. There are also enough books and films on all these issues.

It is not necessary to study all these in one go. A selection of them according to one's inclination and opportunities will suffice. One can get involved for a longer periods in any one of them.

Then there is a whole range of activities for building alternatives. Education and health care takes the bulk of these, but for engineers these are not so attractive. Restoring eco systems is the main agenda for this century and here there is a lot of scope for engineers. The biggest and most urgent area is water (not energy as many engineers would tend to think). Without water no life is possible and water is the biggest scarcity facing mankind. Water harvesting implies a host of activities - from roof top rain water harvesting to water shed management and restoring our forests. This is a huge agenda and it alone can give meaningful work to all of us. Other areas of priority are food, fuel (for cooking), fodder, transport (pedal power and draught animals) and waste management.

So there is a lot going on and if one gives say about three years to learn and choose, one can firmly join the alternative movement somewhere or the other. In these three years one need spend only a fraction of the money involved in any university course and learn a lot more. This learning is through travel, stay and participation at the field level, meeting some of the most experienced activists and from books, alternative journals and films. Also one will be part of a different peer group of young people and this will strengthen one's convictions.

In the next section we will introduce some of the institution/organisations and engineers who are practising alternatives.

Help Available
Below we are giving names of few institutions/organisations and individual engineers, who are practising alternatives. You can contact them and learn more about how to proceed. Some of you may say that most of these individuals have graduated from prestigious institutions. While it tends to add credibly to the list, one may ask, 'It is alright for 'them' to choose - they have the confidence and choice. But we don't have!' I have no good answer to that. All I can say is that when they did there were no takers for the alternatives, whereas today due to the crisis, many more avenues are open for the alternatives and there is room for more and for variety.

These are the names of the institutions and engineers. Almost all the engineers are above 50 years many even above 60 years. So they have at least 20-30 years of experience.

  1. Arvind Gupta, IIT, Kanpur, Located at Pune,"arvind gupta" <arvindguptatoys@gmail.com>, Scientific toys.
  2. Delhi Platform, Arun Bidani, Located at Delhi, "Arun Bidani" <bidani.arun@gmail.com> Supports political struggles.
  3. Dinesh Mishra - Civil Engg., IIT, Kharagpur, 1967, located at Jamshedpur, Jharkhand "Dinesh Kumar Mishra" <mishradk@sify.com> Worked on rivers of North Bihar
  4. Cerana Foundation, Sagar Dhara (1951- ) Mechanical engg. IIT, Mumbai, Located at Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. Email: sagdhara@gmail.com Areas of interest are industrial pollution, energy.
  5. "Manthan.Shripad@gmail.com" <Manthan.Shripad@gmail.com> Located at Badwani, M. P. Worked many years with NBA.
  6. Dams, Rivers & People, Himanshu Thakkar IIT, Mumbai Located at 86-D, AD Block, Shalimar Bagh, Delhi 110 088. Email: cwaterp@vsnl.com
  7. Kalpana Mehta, IIT, Kanpur, Aeronautical Engg. Located at New Delhi "Kalpana Mehta" <kalpanaindu@hotmail.com> Women and health issues
  8. LOCOST (Alternative pharmaceuticals) S. Srinivasan (-) Physicist, IIT, Kharagpur, IIM, Bangalore, Located at Baroda. Email: "SahajBRC Gmail" <sahajbrc@gmail.com>
  9. Madhu Sarin, School of Architecture, Chandigarh and London. Located at Chandigarh. Madhu Sarin <msarin@sify.com>Town planning, forest bill and tribal’s' struggle for forest rights
  10. MAN-Mysore Amateur Naturalists, Manu K. - National Institute of Engineering, Mysore Located at Mysore. Known for his work on captive care of abanded Pelicans chicks in a pen at Kukrebellur, near Bangalore. Phone: +91 98863 83793 and +91 81059 00631
  11. Mohan Mani, IIT Chennai, IIM, Kolkata, Located at Bangalore, "workers blr" <workersblr@yahoo.co.in>, Action research with trade unions
  12. Shreekumar (1959- ) Chemical Engg. NIT, Suratkal, 1981, Ph.D. IISc, Bangalore (1996), worked in ONGC for 6 years. Located in Udupi district Karnataka. Email: shreeudp@gmail.com Phone 08258 205340 Sustainabile living, organic farming, thermodynamics and sustainability
  13. Prayas, N. Sreekumar IIT, Mumbai, Located at Hyderabad "Sreekumar N" <sreekumar@prayaspune.org> Prayas works in the field of critical assessment of our energy needs.
  14. Suresh Kosaraju M. Sc Agriculture, Pantnagar University. Located at Hyderabad. "Suresh Kosaraju" <kosaraju.suresh@gmail.com>.Interested in organic farming, seeds, translation and publications, education and children's literature in Telugu.
  15. Rahul Banerjee, 74 krishnodayanagar, Khandwa Naka, Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India – 452001, cell no: +919425943023, webpage: tp://rahulbanerjee.notlong.com/
    blog:
    http://anar-kali.blogspot.com
  16. T. Vijayendra (1943- ), Electronics and Elec. Comm., IIT, Kharagpur, 1966 Email: t.vijayendra@gmail.com Mobile: +91 94907 05634. Main area of interest is political activism and education of activists.

P.S.

I got some more names:

  1. Sharad Lele, ATREE, Bangalore
  2. Alok Agrawal, Narmada Bachao Andolan, Khandawa
  3. Anand Kapur, Ekjut Sangathana, Pune
  4. Vinayak Lohani Kolkata
  5. Ravi Chopra, Dehradun
  6. Mr. Gon, Solar and gasifier projects, Sinderbans, West Bengal
  7. Harish Hande, Solar Lighting
Obviously there are many more. I will not be surprised if the list exceeds 100. The purpose of the article however, is served, even by this limited number.

Words: 3321

25. 05. 2012


Mobile: +91 94907 05634


Monday, 7 January 2013

ON POPULATION


-->
ON POPULATION
Introduction
This is meant to be an article for activist education and therefore on the one hand it starts with explaining basic concepts; on the other hand it avoids academic references. The population problem is complex and has been debated since Marx's time. In the past leftists maintained that it is not a real problem, but a creation of capitalism. However in the last few decades resource constraints of the planet earth have been recognised and the present population of seven billions appears as a challenge. This article does not give definite ready solutions. It tries to present the problems and looks at possible solutions in a particular region.
Population Growth, Growth Rate and Doubling of Population
Population growth means increase in population which is computed by subtracting total deaths from total births per year. For a specific area or country one has to add total inmigration minus total outmigration.
Population grows at a 'compound rate' (like compound interest rate that we learn at school). The doubling of population is a function of growth rate. A simplified (but fairly accurate) formula is 70/growth rate = No. of years in which the population will double. Thus if we have 1 percent growth rate, in 70 years it will double. If we have 2 percent then in 35 years it will double and in 70 years it will be 4 times! If the growth rate is 10 percent it will double in 7 years - like our fixed deposits used to double in 7 years when the interest rates were 10 percent.
Zero Population Growth (ZPG) or Sustainable Population
Zero population rate (ZPG) means the rate of growth is zero or we have a stable population. We can even have negative population growths which results in the decline of the population. This happens at some time both in nature and in human history.
In nature sustainable population is based on high child mortality and normal/low longevity. High child mortality occurs because almost all animals have predators, which kill the weak and the slow. Also in nature they don't have 'health care' like humans have today, where the aim is to save every child and achieve as low child mortality as possible. High child mortality ensures lower growth rate and more effective genetic selection and therefore a ‘healthier’ population. Low longevity occurs because the predators kill the weak and the old because they cannot escape the predators. Animals that do not have predators (the top of the species) die due to inability to hunt or digest. For example, tigers die when they become too weak to hunt whereas elephants die due to losing their teeth.
In early human history human beings were not very different from other animals as the population growth charts show below. But human history is different because humans can modify the environment to suit themselves to a greater degree than any other species. This ability kept on increasing and it increased by a leap due to industrialisation in the last 200 years. That is the root of the population problem.
The Problem
The population growth is essentially due to humans’ ability to modify the environment to suit their needs. While the invention of fire and other similar inventions were important, a significant change occurred around 12,000 years ago due to introduction and growth of agriculture. Agriculture provided food security by increasing the shelf life of food (mainly grains), made slavery possible and in turn increased population. The figures are well known. Thus:
                                                           World                                                  India
Beginning of agriculture (10000 B. C.)           1 Million
Introduction of Iron (500 B. C.)                      100 Million
Beginning of Christian Era                              200 Million
1800 A. D.                                                      1000 Million or 1 Billion                      260 Million
1900 A. D.                                                      1.6 Billion                                             300 Million
1950                                                                2.5 Billion                                             350 Million
2000                                                                6 Billion                                                1 Billion
Today                                                              7 Billion +                                             1.2 Billion
(All figures and dates are approximate).
Agriculture also destroyed forests, grasslands and wetlands endangering the flora and fauna and in the final analysis it can endanger human species too. We said above that agriculture created food security. It is debatable because it also increased population and created slavery thus creating food insecurity for the slaves. This has happened more dramatically in the 20th century.
The 20th Century
As we see from the data above, the 20th century was unique. It had the highest population growth rate in history. It was the only century in which the global population doubled and trebled! Several factors contributed to it. The green revolution (chemical fertilisers, pesticides, seeds, irrigation and mechanisation of agriculture), which was possible due to availability of cheap petroleum products, came only after World War I (in India it came in the 1970s). It contributed significantly to increased production of commodified food, particularly in the US, Canada and Australia and contributed to increase of population all over the world. On the other hand it also increased poverty, hunger and food insecurity for millions of people, especially in the third world.
Secondly increased longevity and decreased child mortality occurred due to dramatic changes in the health care industry. This is opposite to what happens in nature. In the era of cheap oil longevity increases due to ‘zoo conditions’ of old people - no predators, assured food supply and a high eco foot print of old people due to geriatric health care. In nature, ’zoo conditions’ do not prevail and therefore longevity is low.
Thirdly, decrease in the number, intensity and deaths due to famines. So we get a picture of a 7 billion population with millions of hungry people all around the world, particularly in the third world. The current UN data of hunger is around a thousand million or one billion.
Several other things happened too. A huge meat and poultry industry came up. These animals did not eat grass or insects as in the past but were fed agricultural produce (mainly corn in the US). So a greater area came under agriculture, further reducing grassland, wetland and forest. Several commercial crops like tobacco, tea, coffee and sugarcane also took up large agriculture areas. To feed this agriculture other industries and mining also increased. A huge resource drain occurred.
The 21st Century
There is a limit to growth of agriculture. It is limited by land and by input resources. The limit was artificially raised by cheap oil in the 20th century. This has ended in the 21st century. Oil production peaked (2005-2008), and it is now declining, never to rise again. This not only ushered an unending crisis of capitalism, it has also affected food production by increasing the input prices of agriculture. Today a billion people are starving the world over. About half of these starving people, that is, 500 Million are likely to die in this decade. And a full half of them, that is, some 250 Million will be Indians. It is difficult to imagine what other things will happen along with this catastrophic event. It is an end of era event - like the Black Death in Medieval Europe.
What else can happen during this period? With the arrival of Peak Oil, the curtain has closed on Act 1 of the drama Petroleum Man. What will happen in Act 2? Chekhov said, 'If there's a gun on the wall at the beginning of the play, by the end it must go off.' In the world's nuclear arsenal there are many guns on the wall. If life copies art, will there be an Act 3 in which the players, having learned their lesson the hard way, live sustainably? So if we do face a nuclear holocaust then we may have a situation when the 'living shall envy the dead'. However as humans, we are optimistic and so let us look at some more optimistic scenarios.
What are the possibilities?
There are two issues:
  1. How the current and growing population can feed itself and
  2. How we can move towards a sustainable population
As we have seen above in a short term scenario there is going to be a lot of pain and starvation deaths. In the past due to cheap oil one could transport large quantities of food quickly. While it did not stop poverty or starvation, it prevented deaths. This no longer will be possible. These deaths will occur among vulnerable population, the poor and tribals. The sad thing is that these very people have many of the skills needed to sustain us in a post oil world. Various scholars have given different figures about reduction of population in the short term. One extreme figure is that the world population will be only two billion by 2050.
In the long term there are some possibilities. With the end of oil, economies will have to grow local because transport costs will be too high. If we do not destroy ourselves social changes are bound to occur.
A viable future lies in some kind of non capitalist social formation which is based on:
  1. Equity
  2. Scaling down of energy use
  3. Local self sufficiency
  4. Eco restoration by using Permaculture/Agro Ecology
This may ensure enough food for the existing population. Each eco region will have to become self sufficient. Now different eco regions can support different levels of populations. Deserts and cold countries support smaller populations whereas tropical countries and riverine plains support bigger populations. So over a period the population will have to decline according to carrying capacity of the region. In the final analysis they will have to attain zero population growth and may even have shrinking of population.
Social Formation
We have two existing models which have tackled the present problems somewhat successfully: the Cuban model after the collapse of Soviet Union and the Transition Town Movement in Europe and USA. The latter has an anarchist kind of social formation.
The erstwhile socialist/communist countries (former Soviet Union, China, Vietnam etc.) may learn from Cuba and have their own version of ‘Special Period’ and come out of the crisis in 5 years.
The advanced capitalist countries may have some kind of social democracy with strong ‘Eco Socialism’ inputs and coupled with Transition Town models may also solve the problem within a relatively short period.
The so called ‘Third World ‘countries have limited experience of democracy. While they do have anarchist kind of experiments in pockets, like permaculture communes that are springing up everywhere, they are also facing lot of difficulties because the society at large still has an authoritarian background. So, these countries may have to go through some kind of revolution resulting in a command economy and then follow Cuba kind of ‘special period’. This is an optimistic scenario, but in reality there will be lot of conflict, pain and misery, particularly before and during the revolution. There is also a possibility that some countries may not have revolution and may have a prolonged period of chaos destroying people and resources.
Zero Population Growth
The new social formations coupled with organic farming or agro ecology can certainly feed the present population better. This is due to several factors. Due to relative equitable distribution people will have a little more food. A lot of waste due to wasteful consumption by today's rich, waste due to storage and transport in the present capitalist economy will also be eliminated.
However as we have seen organic farming fed only about two billion people in 1921. Can it feed 7 billion people today? It is a very difficult proposition. So there will be attempts to limit population growth and take it to zero population growth (ZPG).
The existing models of ZPG are based on urbanisation, nuclear family and increased prosperity. This model cannot be applied to the whole world because there are not enough resources for the whole world to achieve the prosperity that the western countries and some richer people in developing countries have achieved.
However one reason for the above model to work was the security that this model provided. It is possible to provide security at a lower level of consumption if the society is based on equity. So it is possible that in the new social formations ZPG may be achieved.
But is achieving ZPG enough?
We have seen that the sustainable population before agriculture was only one million. What is the desirable level of population that is actually sustainable over a long term? Obviously one million, the natural sustainable population before agriculture, is the lowest limit and mankind may never go down to that level. Various figures have been suggested, most of them are around two billion or less. This figure is arrived at due to the fact that in 1921 when the population was two billion, all agriculture was organic. For India this figure is 350 million (1950) when practically all agriculture was organic. However since then the soil has been degraded and without oil even this population may have difficulties to survive. Will mankind shrink to such a level? And of course the more pressing question is how the present population will face the situation when fossil fuel agriculture comes to an end. As we said above there is a possibility of large scale famine killing millions of people.
The Future
Will mankind be able to achieve this reduction of population to two billion? The question poses several issues. Mankind has developed an ethics that values life per se and it is unthinkable to allow child mortality to increase and have higher number of births. Similarly it is difficult to think of lowering longevity. At best we can think of an option - making euthanasia legal. But it will be exercised by very few. Only future generations will be able to think about it more clearly in changed circumstances. Even if we achieve negative growth rates, it will take a long time to achieve this kind of reduction. And what is the way to achieve this? If we decrease birth rate, we will be saddled with an increasingly aging population, like Japan and France today. So logically nature's way appears to be best. In organic farming we say that we should follow Nature's way. Why should it not be applicable to human society? It remains a challenge to future generations as to how to achieve this in a humane way.
Think Locally, Act Locally
In the past the slogan, 'Think Globally, Act Locally' was very popular. Even in this article we began looking at the problem globally. But as we have said, in the future local self sufficiency will be the order of the day. So we should also be able to think locally and act locally. Below we look at the Deccan in India as an eco region, look at its problems and try to look at the solutions that are being attempted.
Historically India has been endowed with rich natural resources and the country was self sufficient most of the time except in times of great political turmoil. Deccan too has been self sufficient. The last great famines occurred during the closing decades of the 19th century.
Every eco region has specific food practices. In Deccan it has been millets, pulses and ground nut. Agriculture is mainly rain fed with local irrigation from tanks. Some rice was grown in low lying areas with tank irrigation. Cotton was the main cash crop. Rearing of sheep and goats has been an important part of the local economy and meat has been part of the diet. Some amount of fish and poultry has also been part of the food. Some communities also eat pork.
A lot of this changed due to green revolution in other parts of the country and in Deccan it introduced food insecurity and hunger and in some cases farmer’s suicide. How did it come about?
Increases of food production of wheat and rice are concentrated in green revolution areas. This was brought to the Deccan by the government’s public distribution system. Popular governments introduced rice at two rupees per kilo for the poor. This made the local millets expensive and people got used to eating rice and wheat. Slowly rice and wheat were introduced as food crops. As these require lot of water, tube well irrigation was introduced and tanks were neglected. Other cash crops like sugar cane, soybean and genetically modified Cotton were also introduced.
This led to a big disaster within 30 years. Water tables fell and there has been a big water scarcity in many regions. Commercial agriculture proved unviable for small and medium farmers and their burden grew to such an extent that several thousands of farmers had to commit suicide. Polished rice and white flour consumption affected the health of local people and possibly caused increased suffering due to diabetes. Hunger and water scarcity stalks the land.
The socialist solution to this situation is a combination of the old traditions and new. The old tradition consists of struggling for security of land ownership or land to the tiller or land reforms. The new is decentralization, local food security and knowledge based restoration of ecology and agriculture that has been degraded due to the processes mentioned above. Local food security implies growing local foods as per local ecology. In the Deccan it would mean reducing rice and wheat and going back to millets, pulses and ground nut. Again the cash crop of sugar cane and soybean which are popular today will have to be abandoned or reduced drastically and organic cotton will have to be restored. Agro ecology would be the key science of the 21st century and rebuilding local communities would be the key social task.
A large number of social movements coordinated by NAPM (National Alliance of People’s Movements), NGOs like Deccan Development Society and several other organisations, small groups, permaculture farms in the region are following this path. While the scale is small and the ruling classes are very powerful, nevertheless they are showing a viable alternative. With larger political changes these policies and experiences will prove useful. It is certainly possible to visualise food self sufficiency for the Deccan region.
Call to Arms
In the face of such imminent crises there are several people’s movement going - the Maoists, the ethnic and regional movements in Kashmir and the North East and scores of movements against large capitalist projects that take away common property resources such as land and water, existing livelihoods of poor people and endanger the environment. However there is a lack of coordination and understanding about the nature of capitalist crisis. The movements mainly oppose the exploitation and oppression and demand either immediate relief or improvement of the system. Many even think that they are fighting a losing battle. They do not realise that the time has come to fight for a win, to change the system. There does not seem to be the necessary urgency in the people’s movement. Partly it is inertia; partly it is the phenomenon of the boy crying ‘wolf’, that is, in the past, so many times, capitalism faced crisis and yet we did not have any revolutionary change in India. So this time around people are tired of responding. Then there is a divergence in various movements – in the issues handled – class, ethnicity or opposition to mega projects. So even though millions of people are actively opposing the present State and capitalism, there is no dialogue or coordination between different groups and movements. It is the need of the hour to have a dialogue, come together for concerted action and avoid the forthcoming disaster as much as possible. This time around the chances are better because the edifice of the enemy is weakened, is crumbling and imploding. Is anyone listening?
Words: 33311
August 11, 2012

Published in 'Frontier' Vol. 45, No. 14 - 17, Oct 14 - Nov 10 2012