INTRODUCTION

The world is going through a major crisis. Many have called it the biggest crisis after the 1929 depression. Several factors have come together to herald this crisis. First is environment degradation that has now reached a crisis point in the shape of global warming. Every one agrees that it is a very serious crisis. If carbon emissions continue at present levels, then the time will arrive when the tipping point will occur. That is, reversals will not be possible, that global warming itself will create more global warming. No one knows when such a point may be reached. Some say it has already occurred; some give it 10, 20, 50 or 100 years. The second factor is peak oil, peak gas and peaking of several mineral resources. Peaking means that after the particular point has been reached, production will not rise, but will fall. The reason is that there is only a finite quantity of these minerals and when half of it is taken out, the production starts falling. Often because, the cost of extracting from leftover, lower grade, remnant sources, is much higher in terms of energy and money.  The third is the economic crisis which began in the U.S.A. with the housing crisis in September 2007 and got full blown in the financial melt down of September 2008. Broadly, there is no disagreement on these facts. The differences are in the response to these crises.

The response of the government and the ruling class follow a particular trend. Primarily all these crises are not considered together. Each is treated separately. The financial crisis is tackled by a bail out kind of response. Global warming is treated by international agreements of reducing emissions. The response to Peak oil and peak gas is to opt for coal and nuclear energy, supplemented by alternatives like solar, wind, bio fuel etc.

Most people are aware of the different aspects of this crisis in a piecemeal manner. Thus for the economic crisis people want job security. People hope that these international agreements will manage to tackle global warming. While many oppose coal and nuclear based energy sources, they all hope that either alternatives like solar, wind etc. will happen or some new technological innovation will solve the entire problem.

This book addresses these issues in a different manner. One cannot rule out the possibility that this approach is wrong; that any of the above approaches may prove right; or that, the future being unpredictable, problems may be addressed in an altogether new manner.

All the same, based on study and concern for the future, this book outlines a different approach. First, in the opinion of the author, this is the most unprecedented crisis in human history. For the last 10,000 years or so, human society has experienced an increase in available energy through technological innovations and exploitation of man by man and exploitation of nature. This energy availability kept on increasing. And, in the last 200 years of industrial revolution it has increased enormously. The author believes that for the first time in human history we will face a decrease in available energy.

It is taken as a given that it is not possible to estimate when global warming will reach a tipping point. However, peak oil and the related economic crisis may actually reduce emission; it is possible that global warming will be arrested, even though effects of past warming will continue to create problems. The real solution then will be to learn to live with reduced levels of energy.

There are two kinds of challenges involved. Society cannot go back in time from its modern or present sensibilities. The challenge is how to have a modern society with reduced energy. A fossil fuel free society implies a drastic reduction of available energy for mankind. This makes the present social system of capitalism unviable. However this does not mean that humans are going back to the Stone Age!  More than half the energy used in the present system is irrational. The war industry, tobacco, narcotics, alcohol, much of the medical industry, a lot of the finance industry, bureaucracy etc are totally unnecessary. The alternative sources of energy would be sufficient for this reduced need of energy and still allow man to live comfortably with modern sensibilities and modified/improved modern technologies.

The second and more immediate problem is that the ruling classes are not going to give up voluntarily. People all over the world are struggling to save their livelihood, land, water and air from the sharks of the industry. The agents of change, therefore, will be organised people who are carrying out these struggles. People will not agree to a solution where they will continue to be poor, oppressed and exploited. So the final solution may lie in reduced and equitable access to energy for all. Finally, human society has encroached on nature much beyond its share at the cost of other living beings. Human society will have to restore these resources so that all forms of life can survive. Otherwise, human society itself will not survive.

This book is in three parts. The first, ‘The party is over’ describes the nature of the problem; the second, ‘Where do we want to go?’ describes a vision of the future; and the third is, ‘What then should we do?’ In it the strategy proposed is: 1. Halt the juggernaut of dying capitalism - coal based power plants, huge hydro-power plants, sponge iron plants, new mining leases etc. This can be done only through local people's organisations. 2. Build regional coalitions of people's organisation to plan and build a new society. To begin with, work towards assured alternative fossil fuel free livelihoods for every one.

In the appendices, a brief description of the Quaker method of dialogue and conflict resolution has been included. Also the script of ‘Village with the Watermills’ , which is an episode from Kurosawa’s film ‘Dreams’, has been included as an artistic and poetic perspective of a fossil fuel free society.

The objective of the book is primarily to provide educational material for activists and non-professionals. The book puts forward the views and action plans in a straightforward, simple and cogent form, without meandering into academic debates. While I checked with professional colleagues that no gross error has occurred in the data presented I have avoided giving references. The references provided at the end of the book are more in the nature of resources.